Angel Yeast (600298): The performance of the leading advantages is expected to gradually improve
The competitive landscape is stable and the growth logic is clear.
We believe that: 1) Yeast is a necessary consumer product, and the future growth space will still be interconnected. The domestic market and the industry’s competitive landscape are stable. As an absolute leader in the industry, the company has excellent quality, brand, and equal channels, and its market share ranks first; 2) In overseas markets, the company’s product advantages are obvious, overseas factories are constantly expanding and profitability is outstanding; 3) The company has excellent R & D and innovation capabilities, rich product lines, and health products, YE, animal nutrition and other derivatives have great growth potential.
The relocation of the Yili factory was confirmed, and the new and old chairman completed alternately.
Environmental protection and production restriction caused Anqi Yili’s profit to decrease in 2018.The company has determined to relocate the factory to Kekedala City, Xinjiang in 2021. After the relocation, the company will calculate an annual average net profit of 78.68 million yuan.60%.
In August 2019, the former chairman, Mr. Yu Xuefeng, resigned as 北京桑拿网 chairman due to his age and was subsequently hired as a counsellor of Yichang Municipal Government.
Mr. Xiong Tao, the new chairman, is a former director and concurrently deputy general manager of Xingfa Group. We believe that the management mechanism of the business line may change after the new and old chairman are replaced.
Falling molasses prices in 2018/2019 are expected to improve gross margins.
The price of molasses in the 2018/2019 season has dropped significantly. We expect the company’s molasses purchase cost in 2019 to be lower than in 2018, and the gross profit margin will improve.
As for the future price of molasses, there are many influencing factors. We believe that the general trend is to gradually decline, but there may be changes in the middle and there is controversial uncertainty.
When the price 杭州桑拿网 of molasses rises, you can also consider direct price increases and hedging, which guarantees profitability.
Looking at the ton price and ton cost of the yeast series, the ton price increased by 13 from 2013 to 2018.
82%, cost per ton increased by 1.
19%, gross profit margin continued to increase to 36.
The impact of depreciation on performance is expected to decrease.
We have made certain assumptions in the text, predicting that the amount of re-solidification in 2019, 2020, and 2021 will be 4 respectively.
73 trillion, all maintained at around 5 trillion, compared to 6 in 18 years.
8.7 billion, 13 of 17 years.
5.7 billion, a significant decline.
It is expected that the depreciation amount in 2019/2020/2021 will be stable without rapid increase, and the depreciation / revenue will remain around 6% (2019H1 is 6).
Earnings and estimates.
We expect the company’s EPS to be 1 in 19-21.
At 54 yuan, the PE of the relevant comparable company is 38-54 times in 2019, and 35-38 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 40.
70 yuan, given the “preliminary market” rating.
Rising molasses prices; appreciation of the RMB; stricter environmental protection leading to production restrictions.